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بدأت ولاية رئيس الجمهورية اللبنانية، جوزاف عون، وسط آمال وطموحات كبيرة لدى الشعب اللبناني. إلا أن مسار تشكيل الحكومة سرعان ما اصطدم بعقبات جديدة، أدت إلى حالة من الجمود السياسي أعاقت عملية التشكيل. ويعزى هذا التعثر إلى النهج الذي اعتمده القاضي نواف سلام في إدارة الملف الحكومي، مما أدى إلى شلل سياسي قد يخلّ بالتوازن القائم ويعيد لبنان إلى نقطة الصفر، خاصة في ظل التراجع السياسي الذي يشهده البلد في المرحلة الأخيرة.
Lebanon’s fragile economy between recovery and collapse
The tenure of the President of the Republic of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, began with great hopes and aspirations among the Lebanese people. However, the process of forming a government soon encountered fresh obstacles. This deadlock is attributed to the approach adopted by Judge Nawaf Salam in handling the governmental portfolio, which has led to a state of political stagnation, paralyzing the formation process. This could potentially upset the balance and return Lebanon to square one, particularly given the political decline witnessed in recent times.
Strategic researcher and Saudi political analyst, Dr Khalid Batarfi, told Intellinews that the situation in Lebanon remains unstable, stressing the need for a fully formed government alongside programmes for restructuring the Ministry of the Interior, Public Security, and other security bodies to ensure internal stability. He added that Lebanon, from both an economic and financial perspective, requires trustworthy banks, as well as a comprehensive plan to open the door to investment, modernise laws and regulations that encourage and safeguard it. He questioned: “If Lebanese citizens themselves do not feel secure about their money in banks and do not trust the existing systems and laws, how can we expect investors to bring their capital to Lebanon, especially when they have safer alternatives elsewhere?”.
Regarding Saudi Arabia’s role in pressing for the swift formation of a government, he said: “The Kingdom must play this role in cooperation with the international community, given that it is a key member of the Quintet Committee and is entrusted with conveying the conditions and requirements of the international community and organisations. It carries out this role continuously “.
Sources at Intellinews indicate that Saudi Arabia is closely monitoring the situation in Lebanon and that there is a fully operational task force dedicated to following this file using all available means, including incentives through all possible channels.
On this matter, Batarfi noted that Riyadh remains committed to this follow-up, stating: “When the Kingdom embarks on a project, it sees it through to the end. However, the opposing side is putting up fierce resistance due to the vast interests at stake.”
He pointed out that Hezbollah and the Amal Movement have ruled the country since 2014, relinquishing this power will not be easy without internal and external pressure. However, he lamented the weakness of internal pressure due to divisions and a lack of coordination among opposition forces, despite them forming a majority. “Each faction sings to its own tune, even within the Sunni, Christian, and Druze communities,” he remarke.
Batarfi stressed that Saudi Arabia cannot impose change, especially when some Lebanese political forces prioritise their interests with the “duo.” He added: “The Kingdom is ready to provide the necessary support, but there must be an active internal movement for change.”
Some in Lebanon fear a decline in Saudi influence, particularly following delays in government formation and a relative loss of political momentum after the election of a new president.
Batarfi stated: “The Kingdom will not give up, but at the same time, it will not take the risk of offering investments or aid if the situation in Lebanon remains unchanged. It cannot engage with individuals it does not trust, particularly given past experiences. Billions of dollars were provided, only to end up in officials’ pockets or smuggled abroad.”
Amidst these developments, Lebanese circles await the outcome of President Joseph Aoun’s visit to Saudi Arabia, which comes at a critical juncture following the formation of the new government. This visit represents an important opportunity to rebuild trust between Lebanon and the Gulf states, which have long been a cornerstone of the Lebanese economy.
If the visit succeeds in securing economic and investment agreements, it could pave the way for new Gulf investments, revitalising key sectors such as real estate and tourism. Furthermore, should the new government implement serious economic reforms, economic relations could return to a positive trajectory, with Lebanon demonstrating readiness to cooperate with its Gulf partners to tackle future challenges.
Faced with these challenges, many investors who have suffered losses in Lebanon find it difficult to move past their previous experiences, leading to extreme caution in their investment decisions. This cautious approach is reflected in the rapid fluctuations in economic statements and forecasts, which could once again impact the economic landscape.
It is well known that investments and capital movements are heavily influenced by geopolitical conditions, as capital invariably seeks stability and security. Lebanon, having endured a severe economic crisis, has witnessed significant shifts in its national currency, banking sector, asset values, and financial returns. Purchasing power and monetary policies have also been affected, leading to a contraction in the available cash supply in the market.
In this context, a member of the “Banking Supervision Committee,” economic expert Kamel Wazni, told Intellinews that Lebanon has emerged from a difficult period and is in need of all possible economic partnerships with countries that can assist its recovery, particularly Arab nations, with Saudi Arabia at the forefront.
Wazni stressed that Lebanon needs “to reactivate economic activity between itself and the Gulf states and to restore investment, whether directly or through operating institutions, particularly in the tourism sector, which previously thrived on Gulf presence in Lebanon but was disrupted due to past events.”
He added: “We are now close to finding a way to form a government after settling the presidency issue, and there is a major reform process ahead. If the government fulfils its duties, economic cooperation will take place across all sectors, especially in investments, alongside the export of Lebanese agricultural products to Gulf states.”
The Saudi factor is crucial in Lebanon’s investment sector. The Lebanese economy has long relied on Saudi investments and deposits, highlighting the need for renewed Saudi engagement in Lebanon, which has faced consecutive economic and financial crises for years. “The return of Saudi investments and the resumption of trade and tourism relations will create financial and moral momentum. When these forces return to Lebanon and declare their support and investment, it will benefit both them and Lebanon alike. Moreover, Lebanon’s reintegration into the Arab and international fold is something the Lebanese people long for,” Wazni remarked.
It remains unclear how long Lebanon’s recovery will take, particularly after implementing the required reforms and attracting investments. “If security stability is achieved in the south, accompanied by an Israeli withdrawal and government formation, in addition to the restoration of relations with Gulf states and the return of Lebanese investors to their homeland, Lebanon’s revival will not be difficult or impossible,” Wazni stated.
For now, the country remains in a state of anticipation, awaiting long-overdue relief.